50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-06-17
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/691/shane_legg_on_risks_from_ai/ conditional on no global war/existential risk” on 2011-06-17
• gwern said “-10% http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2817 90% http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2819” on 2011-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-06-17
• kallman estimated 2% and said “I’m very skeptical tonight, I guess.” on 2011-06-22
• faul_sname estimated 45% and said “Processing power should be quite close, I imagine there will be no lack of people taking full advantage of that fact.” on 2011-07-01
• Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-07-21
• roxton estimated 4% on 2011-09-19
• muflax estimated 95% on 2011-10-26
• muflax estimated 5% and said “(inverted)” on 2011-10-26
• lavalamp estimated 14% on 2011-11-10
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-11-17
• Tuxedage estimated 2% on 2013-01-03
• Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2013-01-03
• Malgidus estimated 15% on 2013-03-27
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2013-03-28
• adbge estimated 15% on 2014-01-29
• FractalHeretic estimated 90% on 2015-04-18
• RoryS estimated 40% on 2015-04-18
• artir estimated 10% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 72% on 2016-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 13% on 2016-10-08
• davatk estimated 7% on 2018-04-26
• kiimberlie estimated 15% on 2018-05-16
• wassname estimated 30% on 2018-08-12
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2019-01-03
• Baeboo estimated 11% on 2019-01-04
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-01-07
• pranomostro estimated 14% on 2019-01-07
• Reinersaltaccount estimated 1% and said “#AI” on 2023-02-03

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