Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Will OpenAI have >=99.9% uptime for June 2023? ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Garrett's activation additions work for a residual network trained on mnist. ( 85% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-22; known on 2023-05-22; judged unknown by TurnTrout on 2023-05-23.
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The “Bush did 9/11” – " " vector (block 23) works in order to generate conspiratorial completions for the prompt “Barack Obama was born in”. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-04-04; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
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X-vector in GPT2 isn't just driven by sequence position of x-vector tokens. ( 70% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
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GPT-J-6B doesn't allow “Love”-“Hate” edit for “I don't wanna hang out with you anymore because”. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.