Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

  • Michael Stevens estimated 50% on 2011-06-29
  • gwern said “semi-dupe of 2011-06-29
  • Michael Stevens estimated 75% on 2011-07-18
  • gwern said “I looked this up recently, and the CDSs did not payout because the haircut was ‘voluntary’ and technically not a default or credit event.on 2011-12-29
  • gwern said “marking wrong per above and the mirror predictionon 2011-12-31
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.

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