Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Michael Stevens estimated 50% on 2011-06-29
• gwern said “semi-dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2823” on 2011-06-29
• Michael Stevens estimated 75% on 2011-07-18
• gwern said “I looked this up recently, and the CDSs did not payout because the haircut was ‘voluntary’ and technically not a default or credit event.” on 2011-12-29
• gwern said “marking wrong per above and the mirror prediction” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.