Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds
- Michael Stevens estimated 50% on 2011-06-29
- gwern said “semi-dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2823” on 2011-06-29
- Michael Stevens estimated 75% on 2011-07-18
- gwern said “I looked this up recently, and the CDSs did not payout because the haircut was ‘voluntary’ and technically not a default or credit event.” on 2011-12-29
- gwern said “marking wrong per above and the mirror prediction” on 2011-12-31
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
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