'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744127” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3012 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3011” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-28
• sdr estimated 1% on 2012-09-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-11-13
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% on 2013-01-09
• Doug Feigelson estimated 1% on 2013-01-16
• Michael Dickens estimated 2% on 2013-01-21
• najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-02-07
• hedges estimated 1% on 2013-03-22
• Jenson estimated 1% on 2013-03-23
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.