'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744126” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3012 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3010” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-08-13
• muflax estimated 0% on 2011-11-02
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-28
• sdr estimated 0% on 2012-09-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-11-13
• Qiaochu estimated 0% on 2012-11-15
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.