“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=745018&z=1313200014058 useless, non-trading at 99%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “cf 2012: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3020” on 2011-08-13
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.