Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-26.

• gwern estimated 7% on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “win as top haiku or random draw: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3123” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “I estimate there will be at least 400 submissions by the end, so the base rate is 25/400, or ~6%. I toss in 1% because my haiku are at least in the top 20% quality-wise, although I don’t know how good taste the ANN voters have” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “contest: http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/contest/2011-08-14/rurouni-kenshin-haiku” on 2011-08-20
• gwern said “nope: http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/survey/208/” on 2011-08-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-08-26.