By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst.
- JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-09-04
- gwern estimated 45% on 2011-09-04
- JoshuaZ said “tags: economy” on 2011-09-04
- Michael Stevens estimated 40% on 2011-09-15
- RandomThinker estimated 33% and said “The problem is that no one will recognize this until after the fact (like 2 years from now). I believe gold has peaked, see my prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6915, but still think this is a no because no consensus.” on 2012-05-11
- Michael Stevens judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.
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