By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-09-04
• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-09-04
• JoshuaZ said “tags: economy” on 2011-09-04
• Michael Stevens estimated 40% on 2011-09-15
• RandomThinker estimated 33% and said “The problem is that no one will recognize this until after the fact (like 2 years from now). I believe gold has peaked, see my prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6915, but still think this is a no because no consensus.” on 2012-05-11
• Michael Stevens   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.