GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• gwern estimated 82% on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “before 2012 (in 2011): http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2032 ; before 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1794” on 2011-09-07
• gwern said “note: this and previous Good Judgment Project predictions were only the ones from the training; the 19 September ones and subsequent markets I will create private, and unmark after GJP judges them (and I can no longer affect other participant bets)” on 2011-09-07
• gwern estimated 19% on 2011-09-07
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-09-11
• Qiaochu estimated 5% on 2012-11-15
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.