This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged.

Created by thaprophet on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-11-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-04.

• thaprophet estimated 100% on 2011-11-04
• JoshuaZ said “The deadline for this seems to be a bit short…” on 2011-11-04
• gwern said “What’s long-term? More than half of the predictions on the site mature in ~5 years (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/future ), so ‘most’ is not that far away” on 2011-11-04
• Metus estimated 0% and said “Can only give 0%, since either the website is still alive when this is judged, so I am right, or I am wrong, then there is nothing to judge with.” on 2011-11-11
• gwern said “Metus, nothing says the content can’t be exported to another site (and Trike has implied I can get the public predictions if they do shut PB down). If nothing else, I can scrape my local download of PB and maintain my personal PB” on 2011-11-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Interpreting this based on deadline as the assertion that the project will close down before the deadline. ” on 2011-11-18
• NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2013-10-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2013-10-29
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-04.