“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 3% on 2011-11-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-11-06
• gwern estimated 5% and said “http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=523003 ; see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2151” on 2011-11-06
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.