The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known in 8 days

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2011-11-15
• Jayson Virissimo changed the deadline from “on 2050-01-01” on 2011-11-15
• RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2011-11-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2011-11-15
• gwern estimated 2% and said “implying secession; cf. 2020 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1714” on 2011-11-15
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-16
• Jayson Virissimo said “or consolidation…” on 2011-11-16
• kilobug estimated 15% on 2011-11-18
• faws estimated 2% on 2012-01-13
• najdorf estimated 10% on 2013-11-11
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-07-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-04-15
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2018-12-20
• najdorf estimated 25% on 2020-09-10
• JTPeterson estimated 1% on 2020-09-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% and said “Very short timeline at this point. Plus I think more states is more likely than less.” on 2020-09-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Too short a timespan at this point. ” on 2020-09-11
• Deepak estimated 0% on 2020-09-12
• n99 estimated 0% on 2022-10-28