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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30

  • Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Date needs to be fixed. Also do you mean specifically on 2026 or by the end of 2026? Those are very different predictions. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-17” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 2% and said “Going with the wording (‘in 2026’).” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “In that case… yummy conjunction fallacy rounds this one down a lot. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Come to think of it, I was thinking of some kind of private conglomerate establishing the colony. But that doesn’t count as an ‘international establishment’, does it? ” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, you think that it’s more likely for a private conglomerate to do that than a group of countries? Given the lack of an obvious profit element in the short-term that seems strange. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “Well, the trend in the space race has been toward privatisation, and I don’t see that reversing. Might just be status quo bias though. Also, a company might have ideological reasons — Mars is outside government control, <cotd>” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “<cotd> you could try building a libertarian utopia there. Then again, the 2% estimate was far too optimistic. 2026 is too early for the technology to bring that about. ” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “There are specific things that pay off in LEO and in geosync that make sense for private companies to do. Not so obvious there’s much like that on Mars. The libertarian utopia idea is interesting, something like the Kochs + Thiel? ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “^ One specific example that I had in mind, but it’s not the only possibility. Anyhow, on further thought, there’s no reason to go to Mars for that even if you DO have the tech. Enough places on Earth, in orbit, on the moon…” on 2011-11-17
  • lavalamp estimated 0% and said “too soon, too specific” on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 3% and said “2021 land on mars http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1892 2035 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1522 land by 2050 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1512” on 2011-11-17
  • Isaac estimated 0% on 2011-11-18
  • kilobug estimated 1% and said “In only 15 years ? For a colony ? Not unless we have the Singularity by then, or similar event.” on 2011-11-18
  • Pablo estimated 1% on 2012-10-02
  • Unknowns estimated 1% on 2015-04-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-08-06
  • Medea estimated 0% on 2015-10-08
  • Medea estimated 1% on 2015-10-14
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 2% and said “Far too short a timeline. ” on 2015-12-07
  • PipFoweraker estimated 2% on 2016-01-06
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-01-17
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2018-12-20
  • Baeboo estimated 2% on 2018-12-21
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26