No open source Minecraft client before 2023

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.

• Nic_Smith estimated 75% on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4632” on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith estimated 25% and said “Oops… typed it in backwards. :(” on 2011-11-22
• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith said “Did you mean 95% by 2023? My mistake is contagious. :( Should I withdraw this and reopen it with less confusing wording?” on 2011-11-22
• gwern said “wasn’t it ‘by’? all the others were, IIRC” on 2011-11-22
• Nic_Smith said “Yes, all the others were, which is how I managed to confuse myself originally, but this is ‘Open Source Minecraft client [in] 2023 or later or never.’” on 2011-11-23
• Nic_Smith said “If you add by/“or earlier” then it should be 100%, as it will either be open-sourced at some point in time or not at all.” on 2011-11-23
• Anubhav said “Prediction is confusing. Why not change it to ‘No open source Minecraft client before 2023?’” on 2011-11-23
• Nic_Smith changed their prediction from “Open Source Minecraft client 2023 or later or never.” on 2011-11-23
• shokwave estimated 60% and said “Notch’s attitude on open source?” on 2011-11-26
• Anubhav said “^ There’s a relevant comment at http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4632” on 2011-11-26
• kpreid estimated 20% on 2011-12-04
• Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-02-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 60% on 2016-04-14
• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2018-12-19
• Baeboo estimated 76% on 2018-12-20
• Nic_Smith   judged this prediction right on 2023-01-01.