If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight.

Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.

• papermachine estimated 25% on 2011-12-26
• papermachine said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4991, http://lesswrong.com/lw/5r6/spend_money_on_ergonomics/5isi for details.” on 2011-12-26
• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-12-26
• muflax estimated 33% on 2011-12-26
• wedrifid estimated 70% and said “Eliezer following Kevin’s diet for three months without giving up in disgust seems like the main unlikely part.” on 2011-12-31
• wedrifid   judged this prediction right on 2014-01-16.
• wedrifid said “The statement is technically correct. (Illustrating the difficulty of formulating predictions with the desired payoff structure for complex prediction conditions.)” on 2014-01-16