Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-12-28
• muflax estimated 10% and said “Has he published any book so far? Seems OOC for him.” on 2011-12-28
• gwern estimated 15% and said “I’m not even sure what the last paper he published was. http://hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html lists a 2010 prediction market paper” on 2011-12-28
• gwern said “2020: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5012 2025: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5013 2030: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5013” on 2011-12-28
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Publishing a book is good for academic careers, and he might co-author one.” on 2012-03-06
• Grognor estimated 14% on 2012-03-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 70% on 2012-06-16
• drethelin estimated 40% on 2012-06-18
• chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2012-07-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “Just to clarify; co-authoring counts as publishing.” on 2012-07-02
• dhoe estimated 50% on 2013-02-03
• Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-02-06
• Andrew MacFie estimated 10% on 2014-10-04
• gwern said “he’s still working on it, last I heard” on 2015-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.