Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-12-28
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-01-03
• Grognor estimated 23% on 2012-03-22
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2012-06-16
• drethelin estimated 80% on 2012-06-18
• Pablo estimated 95% and said “The book is already written. Barring some unforeseen event, it will be published within a few years.” on 2015-02-10
• Jayson Virissimo said “Age of Em is now published.” on 2016-06-14
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction right on 2016-06-14.