In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2012-01-02
• gwern estimated 60% and said “got burned on http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2097” on 2012-01-02
• ahartell estimated 60% on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.
• JoshuaZ said “Surprisingly peaceful time period I guess. ” on 2013-01-01