'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39kc” on 2011-01-06
• gwern said “happening on an annual basis practically now” on 2011-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2011-01-08
• gimpf estimated 90% on 2011-01-09
• kallman estimated 90% and said “….but it still doesn’t lead to outright war.” on 2011-01-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2011-01-21
• Konkvistador estimated 10% on 2011-07-21
• PseudonymousUser said “There were clashes today, but no fatalities: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/08/10/koreas.unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2” on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.