HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “tombstone is covered in the original Deathly Hallows but in MoR…? when predicting, remember to take into account the possibility someone will mention this quote or prediction to EY and he will either like it or use it to spite me” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “original; http://lesswrong.com/lw/94r/rationality_quotes_january_2012/5l9a” on 2012-01-03
• gwern said “due date a guess for when MoR will be finished, but unlikely it will be this year…” on 2012-01-03
• gwern estimated 60% and said “updating now that people are specifically going to bring it to EY’s attention: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5124” on 2012-01-03
• Isaac said “Does this count? Ch.51: “Death might be the last enemy, but it wasn’t a sentient enemy.”” on 2012-01-03
• Larklight estimated 95% on 2012-01-03
• RobertLumley said “Has EY really not read the seventh book? That’s really surprising. I wouldn’t have expected him to write a fan fiction when he hadn’t finished the series. Is that the only book he hasn’t read?” on 2012-01-03
• RobertLumley estimated 65% on 2012-01-03
• Anubhav estimated 100% and said “Too good not to use. ” on 2012-01-03
• Anubhav said “@Robert: Nope, he only read the first 3 IIRC. Most of his Harry Potter knowledge comes from fanfiction. (Not sure where I read this, so take it with a grain of salt. He said this in one of the MoR threads on LW, IIRC.)” on 2012-01-03
• ahartell estimated 90% and said “@Isaac, no. It would only count (as far as I am interpreting the prediction) if the Peverell tombstone itself is actually mentioned or if the quotation itself is used. I agree that it’s too good not to use.” on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2012-01-04
• gwern estimated 75% and said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/94r/rationality_quotes_january_2012/5lu1?context=3 “If it’s incorporated it will have been planned beforehand.” this and the other prediction have become the same thing.” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “Isaac: hm…. maybe. but I think if Eliezer had meant to allude to it with that line, he would’ve said so just now when the topic came up – no point in being coy about spoilers if it already happened, right?” on 2012-01-05
• gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point.” on 2012-04-09
• PotatoDumplings estimated 55% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 75% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 65% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 90% on 2012-11-27
• 75th estimated 50% on 2013-07-13
• Flailingjunk   judged this prediction right on 2013-07-25.
• qznc said “80” on 2014-07-14