“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “original: http://www.cringely.com/2012/01/prediction-5-no-ipo-for-facebook/” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “in 6 months: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2799in 18 months: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2800” on 2012-01-05
• gwern said “starting to get a little pessimistic about this one; a lot of time has passed since the goldman sachs fund began” on 2012-01-05
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2012-01-06
• gwern said “Brian Breslin disagrees: #2 http://brianbreslin.com/2012-predictions/” on 2012-01-08
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 5% on 2012-01-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-02.