Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “failed prediction by 2012/within 2011: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1789” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “http://www.ncsa.illinois.edu/News/Stories/ESShistory/ describes it at 15% capacity a few months ago. marking wrong” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.