Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016

Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.

• roreiy estimated 55% on 2015-01-03
• doxievee estimated 20% on 2015-01-03
• sweeneyrod estimated 10% and said “She’ll surely hold on until at least 9th September when she becomes the longest reigning monarch!” on 2015-01-03
• The_Offwo estimated 5% on 2015-01-04
• rebellionkid estimated 5% on 2015-01-05
• phreeza estimated 4% on 2015-01-05
• simplicio estimated 20% on 2015-01-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-09-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-11-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2015-12-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2015-12-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2015-12-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• splorridge estimated 1% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2015-12-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-12-26
• kuudes estimated 1% on 2015-12-27
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.
• gwern said “for abdicating ever: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/181644” on 2017-03-17