GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-02-21
• modulus estimated 70% on 2012-02-24
• kilobug estimated 85% and said “Cf http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4488 for the same reason, I’ve to put 1-p on this one ;)” on 2012-08-23
• Pablo estimated 92% and said “Intrade: 92%” on 2012-09-29
• gwern estimated 85% on 2012-09-30
• scav   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-11.