Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012.

Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.

• alexguerrero estimated 90% on 2011-11-17
• alexguerrero said “I think Vzla had enough! By far the worst regime ever.” on 2011-11-17
• alexguerrero changed their prediction from “Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela in October 07, 2012.” on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 55% and said “hm… the economy has really been sucking, and he failed in a major referendum a while ago, but still, big men tend to last in office.” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 50% on 2011-11-17
• kilobug estimated 25% and said “He still has a near 60% popularity, and he did greatly lower poverty. Not less than 25% due to uncertainty on his health.” on 2011-11-18
• kilobug estimated 15% and said “Still as popular as ever and leading in all polls, his health seems good enough so he’ll at least last until the election.” on 2012-08-23
• Leo estimated 35% on 2012-09-09
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 40% on 2012-09-19
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-09-20
• Pablo estimated 8% and said “Intrade: 8%.” on 2012-09-29
• gwern estimated 15% on 2012-09-30
• modulus estimated 30% and said “I have a 70% on Chávez winning.” on 2012-10-07
• Pablo estimated 20% on 2012-10-07
• Pablo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-08.