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HP MoR: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

  • gwern estimated 95% on 2012-04-04
  • gwern said “by my count we’re currently at 5 such chapters (the latest chapter being only 700ish words and not counting). see eg. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5485” on 2012-04-04
  • Isaac estimated 90% on 2012-04-05
  • spqr0a1 estimated 98% on 2012-04-09
  • Anubhav estimated 95% and said “Another chapter due tomorrow.” on 2012-04-10
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 100% on 2012-04-20
  • Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2012-05-17.