LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2012-06-03
• PseudonymousUser said “last comment at time of prediction was posted 03 June 2012 11:51:05AM, “A fraction of my comments are outright…”” on 2012-06-03
• PseudonymousUser said “http://kruel.co/2012/06/03/i-quit-lesswrong/” on 2012-06-03
• PseudonymousUser said “previously http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2909 and http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6093” on 2012-06-03
• chemotaxis101 estimated 85% on 2012-06-03
• wallowinmaya estimated 85% on 2012-06-03
• gwern estimated 80% and said “been growing progressively more frustrated and extreme” on 2012-06-03
• Kaj_Sotala estimated 97% and said “I’d be surprised if he managed to stay out for even six months.” on 2012-06-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2012-06-03
• RobertLumley estimated 95% on 2012-06-03
• Grognor estimated 90% and said “agree with gwern but 5.5 years is a long time” on 2012-06-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2012-06-03
• saturn estimated 75% on 2012-06-04
• army1987 estimated 90% on 2012-06-05
• papermachine estimated 95% and said “Every day, quitting LW, again.” on 2012-06-05
• Jayson Virissimo said “Interestingly, I can no longer find the claim that he is quitting Less Wrong on his blog.” on 2012-06-13
• PseudonymousUser said “Reader has the post: https://www.google.com/reader/view/#stream (note that PB has a bug that breaks the visible link but not the target)” on 2012-06-13
• gwern said “Google Alerts send me a notice that he had posted some sort of article list of LW stupidities or errors, but when I went, it was gone. Maybe he’s starting to sanitize any connection with LW?” on 2012-06-13
• PseudonymousUser said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/igf/the_genie_knows_but_doesnt_care/9oxx” on 2013-09-04
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2013-09-04.
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