Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-09-02
  • gwern said “see also Hanson will be successfully frozen: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2967 ; this prediction doesn’t require Hanson to be separated or divorced from his wife. on 2012-09-02
  • gwern said “Basic reasoning behind 1/3: if I heard rumors about 10 pairs, at least half will be wrong – rumors are just rumors – but at least one or two will be right.on 2012-09-02
  • Konkvistador estimated 40% and said “There is clearly chemistry between them as can be heard in the occasional banter on their podcasts. on 2012-09-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-09-03
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “IDK why, but this feels more wrong than publicly assigning probability estimates of particular people commiting suicide. Oh well…on 2012-09-03
  • beo_shaffer estimated 30% on 2012-09-03
  • Leo said “What is “publicly-known”?on 2012-09-09
  • Konkvistador said “@Jayson Virissimo: It really does. I might cause some awkward search results too…on 2012-09-09
  • gwern estimated 35% and said “updating on location infoon 2012-09-16
  • Athrelon estimated 50% on 2012-09-27
  • Pablo Stafforini said “On some interpretations of “publicly-known”, the prediction may already be correct.on 2012-09-29
  • halfwit estimated 10% on 2013-06-09
  • pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-10
  • Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-04

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