I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 99% on 2012-09-07
• gwern estimated 95% and said “this reminds me to make my own predictions per my nicotine gum/patch use: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8179 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8180” on 2012-09-07
• pranomostro estimated 95% on 2018-12-09
• pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-12-09