The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.

#politics

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01

NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2012-09-21
NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a no.Republican.” on 2012-09-21
Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-09-21
JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-09-21
RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-09-21
gwern estimated 10% on 2012-09-21
jakewalker estimated 8% on 2012-09-22
RobertLumley estimated 7% on 2012-09-23
Pablo estimated 7% on 2012-09-29
NathanMcKnight estimated 65% and said “Bumping it up a bit in light of current events. ” on 2013-10-10
tylercurtis estimated 10% on 2013-10-11
JoshuaZ said “Will this be withdrawn if it doesn’t happen by then or will the deadline be extended? ” on 2013-10-11
JoshuaZ said “Also, Nathan I’m curious how you think that such a large change in probability could come over very short term events. ” on 2013-10-11
NathanMcKnight said “I think we’re witnessing the death of the GOP. They’ve already alienated key constituents, and current events are alienating the remainder. ” on 2013-10-11
NathanMcKnight said “It may be that they undo those losses down the road, or it may be that a third party picks up the pieces. I’m betting on the latter with this prediction. ” on 2013-10-11
NathanMcKnight said “If the timeframe I’ve set is too short, I’ll be too busy smoking pot and collecting government benefits to care. ;)” on 2013-10-11
adbge estimated 5% on 2013-10-12
from3004 estimated 30% on 2014-10-16
rebellionkid estimated 2% on 2014-10-17
themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-10-10
krazemon estimated 10% on 2019-05-11
n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28
Reinersaltaccount estimated 0% and said “#politics” on 2023-01-07