By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com.

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.

• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2012-10-15
• chemotaxis101 said “Currently, 173 predictions (most of them private).” on 2012-10-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on 2012-10-16
• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-10-21
• Ben Doherty estimated 25% and said “even if you start strong you’ll probably get bored in a few months” on 2012-10-22
• RandomThinker said “Is there an easy way to see how many you’ve made?” on 2012-10-22
• gwern said “your user page. I like to use a command like `elinks -dump http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern | grep ‘%’ | wc`” on 2012-10-23
• RandomThinker said “@gwern does that go all the way back to the beginning or does that cut off? I’m pretty sure mine doesn’t go back to my first prediction” on 2012-10-23
• gwern said “a cutoff may’ve been added for performance reasons, I guess… a replacement might be something like Googling `gwern site:predictionbook.com/predictions/`” on 2012-10-23
• davidiach estimated 5% on 2012-10-30
• alecbrooks estimated 40% on 2013-01-05
• Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-01-05
• chemotaxis101   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-03.