The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010.

Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

  • dakyne estimated 90% on 2009-12-09
  • dakyne changed their prediction from “The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above by December 31, 2010.” on 2009-12-09
  • JRMayne estimated 60% and said “Inflationary forces are a-comin’, but 90% looks too high.on 2010-01-01
  • gwern estimated 70% on 2010-07-30
  • dakyne said “gold performs better during deflation than inflation in real terms, if not nominal terms. And it soars during hyperinflation.on 2010-08-11
  • gwern said “cf. 2010-08-23
  • dakyne said “@JRMayne and gwern. You guys wanna up your probabilities to 95%?on 2010-09-19
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.
  • dakyne said “Spot gold ended up above $1400/oz.on 2011-01-04

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