Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2024-01-02.
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BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.