3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/128 http://www.slate.com/id/2215265/pagenum/2 ” on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “I agree; 3D is largely wasted or annoying, and the money is too much. The question is when, and how one judges something subjective like this.” on 2010-08-10
• kallman estimated 75% and said “Wow, I need a search function – just predicted the same thing.” on 2010-11-20
• gwern said “hm, now that the due date has come around, I realize I have no idea how to judge it. I’ll punt a year on this.” on 2011-04-05
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-04-01” on 2011-04-05
• faul_sname estimated 20% and said “Judging it will be a problem. 4:1 says there will be a 3d movie with sales in the top 10 of this year by the deadline.” on 2011-07-01
• average_joe estimated 55% on 2012-03-30
• gwern said “3D is still going, and I just read a review in my local paper praising the subtlety and execution of the 3D version of Titanic. time to admit I’m beat.” on 2012-04-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-04.