“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-21
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1on 2010-08-21
  • gwern said “note that this implies advanced genetic procedures being carried out for roughly 9 million pregnancies. ((1321000000 / 1000) * 13.71) * 0.5on 2010-08-21
  • gwern changed their prediction from ““Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence”” on 2010-08-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-01-02
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
  • themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2016-10-07
  • aseyfarth estimated 1% on 2017-01-30

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction