“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “note that this implies advanced genetic procedures being carried out for roughly 9 million pregnancies. ((1321000000 / 1000) * 13.71) * 0.5” on 2010-08-21
• gwern changed their prediction from ““Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence”” on 2010-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 13% 12 days ago

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