“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “note that this implies advanced genetic procedures being carried out for roughly 9 million pregnancies. ((1321000000 / 1000) * 13.71) * 0.5” on 2010-08-21
• gwern changed their prediction from ““Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence”” on 2010-08-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-01-02
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2016-10-07
• aseyfarth estimated 1% on 2017-01-30
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-10
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-01-11
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.
• elephantower said “https://www.npr.org/2019/12/30/792340177/chinese-researcher-who-created-gene-edited-babies-sentenced-to-3-years-in-prison 3 embryos, not 50% of embryos” on 2019-12-31