“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-21
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dx6?c=1” on 2010-08-21
• Bagricula estimated 10% on 2010-09-29
• divide estimated 5% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-01-02
• saturn estimated 2% on 2012-03-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 2% on 2016-07-27
• Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2016-07-31
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Too soon.” on 2016-07-31
• themusicgod1 said “This kind of analysis takes time. We’re basically out of time to do that kind of work. Candidates won’t even release basic medical history.” on 2016-11-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-04.