US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges.

Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• kiba estimated 33% on 2013-05-15
• kiba said “Heavy uncertainty about why DHS’s ICE is going after MtGox’s bank account. Do not know why they seize dwolla but other means of transferring funds into mtgox remains intact.” on 2013-05-15
• kiba changed their prediction from “DHS will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges.” on 2013-05-15
• kiba changed the deadline from “on 2013-05-15” on 2013-05-15
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “Time frame is too short. In the longer term, I think the chances are decent. ” on 2013-05-15
• kiba estimated 90% on 2013-05-15
• Ken estimated 20% on 2013-06-17
• kiba estimated 30% on 2013-07-01
• gwern estimated 30% on 2013-07-01
• kiba estimated 15% on 2013-12-17
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.