HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h)

Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

• Osuniev estimated 45% on 2013-07-31
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2013-08-01
• esran estimated 25% and said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/20782 is relevant” on 2013-08-04
• mavant estimated 50% on 2013-08-08
• azax1 estimated 45% on 2013-08-09
• Skyling estimated 83% on 2013-08-09
• JayDee estimated 33% on 2013-08-21
• Mati estimated 42% on 2014-02-14
• player_03 estimated 80% and said “Harry could coexist with Voldemort. (See the “peas in a pod” monologue.) But he cannot coexist with death. Plus, EY tries to include real-world morals, and he is VERY anti-death.” on 2014-04-24
• Jenson estimated 45% on 2014-06-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2014-06-26
• qznc estimated 80% on 2014-07-14
• moonstne estimated 80% on 2014-07-28
• Osuniev estimated 70% and said “Revised after chapter 102” on 2014-08-02
• Mati estimated 86% on 2014-08-25
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-24.