Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-07
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-01-09
• sketerpot estimated 80% and said “The Falcon 9 flights have all succeeded so far, so another two successful missions sounds likely.” on 2011-01-11
• gwern said “flights got merged and pushed back to february, WP says; bumping date” on 2012-01-08
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01” on 2012-01-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-01-08
• ahartell estimated 70% on 2012-04-09
• gwern said ““The company says it could launch for the ISS as soon as 30 April.” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17541345 bumping” on 2012-04-10
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-04-10” on 2012-04-10
• drethelin estimated 80% on 2012-09-09
• gwern said “first one now scheduled for october: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2012/09/spacex-crs-iss-nasa/ and when will the second be…? bumping out to mid 2013” on 2012-09-24
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-06-30” on 2012-09-24
• ShIxtan estimated 65% on 2013-04-30
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-07-01.