Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2011-01-07
  • gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-01-09
  • sketerpot estimated 80% and said “The Falcon 9 flights have all succeeded so far, so another two successful missions sounds likely.on 2011-01-11
  • gwern said “flights got merged and pushed back to february, WP says; bumping dateon 2012-01-08
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-01-01on 2012-01-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-01-08
  • ahartell estimated 70% on 2012-04-09
  • gwern said ““The company says it could launch for the ISS as soon as 30 April.” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17541345 bumpingon 2012-04-10
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-04-10on 2012-04-10
  • drethelin estimated 80% on 2012-09-09
  • gwern said “first one now scheduled for october: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2012/09/spacex-crs-iss-nasa/ and when will the second be…? bumping out to mid 2013on 2012-09-24
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-06-30on 2012-09-24
  • ShIxtan estimated 65% on 2013-04-30
  • gwern  judged this prediction right on 2013-07-01.

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