'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2011-01-10
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2011/39xy” on 2011-01-10
• Nic_Smith estimated 63% and said “Plausible.” on 2011-01-15
• Nic_Smith estimated 90% and said “Updating. Things would have to change crazy-fast for this not to happen. It’s not impossible, but I’d be surprised.” on 2011-10-22
• muflax   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-31.