Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

  • minhduc estimated 70% on 2011-04-01
  • etrecheesecake  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-04-07.
  • kallman  judged this prediction unknown on 2011-04-10.
  • kallman estimated 10% and said “Please don’t judge a prediction before its time expires unless the outcome is totally clear.on 2011-04-10
  • Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2011-04-11
  • gwern said “how would one judge this anyway? it seems to be under control and not worsening, but is that ‘solved’?on 2011-05-10
  • gwern said “They’re still pumping and reports are coming out that the initial reports were all lies and there was meltdown and meltthrough. marking wrong, not solvedon 2011-06-19
  • gwern  judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-19.

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