reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB.

Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• ZrCa estimated 80% on 2011-12-28
• gwern said “What is ‘fizzle out’? I’m sure quite a few will read through it, it’s a pretty readable book.” on 2011-12-28
• Grognor estimated 10% and said ““if anyone publicly finishes GEB on the official schedule, the prediction will be wrong”” on 2012-01-24
• ZrCa changed the deadline from “on 2012-03-31” on 2012-04-03
• gwern said “changed due date per their official calendar and original projection of July” on 2012-04-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-07-03
• gwern said “they blew their original due date, they’ve blown their august due date, and recent threads bemoan the lack of activity eg. http://www.reddit.com/r/GEB/comments/yx5pj/since_this_subreddit_has_very_low_activity_i/ Marking wrong” on 2012-08-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.
• Grognor said “score.” on 2012-09-04