HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel

Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-04-05
• Sarokrae estimated 40% on 2012-04-05
• Grognor estimated 10% on 2012-04-06
• ahartell estimated 50% on 2012-04-09
• ahartell said “If Voldemort makes it and Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense then does this prediction count as correct?” on 2012-04-09
• ahartell said “made*” on 2012-04-09
• gwern said “hm… what do people think? I was thinking of quirrel killing skeeter specifically but leaving it open for the diary being horcruxed earlier” on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% and said “I interpret “Voldemort made the Horcrux and is Quirrel” to count.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
• 75th estimated 5% on 2013-07-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-03.
• 75th said “It was made into a horcrux in Chapter 111, but that was NOT the spirit of this question; the question was about the diary’s original nature.” on 2015-03-03