1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out

Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.

  • Glenn estimated 95% on 2008-07-16
  • Matt estimated 50% on 2008-07-18
  • Andrew estimated 54% on 2008-07-19
  • Gerrit estimated 80% on 2008-07-23
  • Glenn said “<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AUDUSD=X&t=3m&q=l&l=off&z=m&a=v&p=s" title="3 Month History">on 2008-08-02
  • Glenn said “<img title="5 Day History" src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AUDUSD=X&t=5d&q=l&l=off&z=m&a=v&p=s">on 2008-08-02
  • Glenn said “<img title="today" src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AUDUSD=X&t=1d&q=l&l=off&z=m&a=v&p=s">on 2008-08-02
  • Glenn said “<img title="5 year history" src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AUDUSD=X&t=5y&q=l&l=off&z=m&a=v&p=s">on 2008-08-02
  • Glenn said “http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AUDUSD=X&t=3m&q=l&l=off&z=m&a=v&p=s [pic]on 2008-09-09
  • Glenn estimated 30% and said “Starting to doubt this prediction a lot…on 2008-10-07
  • Glenn  judged this prediction wrong on 2009-01-08.
  • Glenn said “If only I’d we’d created that ‘multiple interval confidence’ feature… I could have been right! http://www.reddit.com/tb/drm4son 2010-10-15
  • gwern said “…or you could have created a prediction for each yearon 2010-10-15

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