Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.

• beo_shaffer estimated 3% on 2012-04-19
• beo_shaffer said “To clarify this will be judge when the reproducibility project has completed all of their intended replication attempt or ( 48 replication attempts completed and ( it is 2022-10-10 or the reproducibility project has ceased) whichever comes first.” on 2012-04-19
• gwern estimated 5% and said “hopefully psychology isn’t this bad…” on 2012-04-19
• lweismantel estimated 1% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% and said “Psychology isn’t worse-than-random.” on 2012-04-20
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• RobertLumley estimated 1% on 2012-04-23
• RobertLumley said “What Oscar said.” on 2012-04-23
• beo_shaffer said “Keep in mind that mainstream statistical methods + the sample sizes common to psychology allow for a high false negative rate. ” on 2012-04-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-04-24
• Sarokrae estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• CarlShulman estimated 1% on 2013-03-22
• CarlShulman said “39/100 so far:http://www.nature.com/news/first-results-from-psychology-s-largest-reproducibility-test-1.17433” on 2015-05-04
• CarlShulman   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.