Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.

• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2015-04-08
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/randpaul/comments/31qpjt/the_doctor_is_in_can_rand_paul_break_the_mold_and/cq4ten1?context=3 Bet with ot1s_f1r3fly. If Paul wins I donate $25 to his campaign. If P does not win he donates $25 to cause of my choice. ” on 2015-04-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “I made some money back in the day betting against Ron Paul (on Intrade), but I even I think 5% is low.” on 2015-04-09
• JoshuaZ said “I remember when people were doing that on Intrade. In that case, there was some easy money there because the Ron Paul fans were deliberately buying shares because news media was paying attention to Intrade numbers. ” on 2015-04-09
• Unknowns estimated 10% on 2015-04-10
• Andrew MacFie estimated 10% on 2015-04-12
• rebellionkid estimated 3% on 2015-04-12
• Faceh estimated 20% and said “That’s strange, you had put down 12% on this exact question, and that was BEFORE he announced.http://predictionbook.com/predictions/61376Curious as to why its LESS likely now that he’s officially running.” on 2015-04-13
• JoshuaZ said “Faceh, that was also well before the major polling repeatedly saw Jeb Bush as a strong front-runner. But thanks for reminding me. I forgot that there was a copy of this prediction already active.” on 2015-04-15
• JoshuaZ said “Also, noting bet with Pure_Politics for $25. http://www.reddit.com/r/randpaul/comments/32h3t1/rand_paul_is_republicans_best_hope_to_beat/cqclxb3?context=3” on 2015-04-15
• NathanMcKnight estimated 15% and said “It would be an interesting race… ” on 2015-04-16
• RoryS estimated 20% on 2015-04-16
• Andrew MacFie estimated 20% on 2015-05-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-06-03
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/comments/38nkx9/what_rand_paul_is_doing_is_what_challenging/crxt8aj?context=3 bet with drock4vu – they get $25 if it happens, I get $8 if it doesn’t. ” on 2015-06-10
• Faceh estimated 15% on 2015-08-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Dropped out. ” on 2016-02-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-14
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% and said “Even if there’s a brokered convention it probably won’t go to him.” on 2016-04-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “No way it goes to him at this point. ” on 2016-04-14
• Faceh   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-05-03.