By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis.

Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.

• FractalHeretic estimated 80% on 2015-04-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% and said “See also prediction 91098.” on 2015-04-18
• RoryS estimated 75% on 2015-04-18
• aoeu estimated 40% on 2015-04-19
• jesselevine estimated 15% and said “I think this is less of a big deal than it’s made out to be. Existential crisis seems a lot more unlikely than job-loss.” on 2015-04-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Updating on further thinking. ” on 2015-04-22
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/32r4sx/how_much_longer_until_we_see_proof_of_the_coming/cqez4l1” on 2015-04-23
• FractalHeretic   judged this prediction right on 2015-10-07.
• FractalHeretic said “http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2015/10/07/president-obama-puts-his-finger-on-the-real-danger-of-robots/” on 2015-10-07
• JoshuaZ said “Great, FractalHeretic, this means I owe you $15. Do you want to PM me on Reddit how you’d prefer to get it? ” on 2015-10-07
• JoshuaZ said “Oh wait, no that’s for http://predictionbook.com/predictions/91098, Obama not running for reelection obviously :) ” on 2015-10-07
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-12-07.
• NathanMcKnight estimated 5% and said “In the linked article, Obama doesn’t refer to AI; he refers to automation. Unless I missed something.” on 2015-12-07
• jesselevine said “Though I believe this particular predication is right, I don’t think it’s a general concern by society right now” on 2016-01-27
• jesselevine   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-27.
• NathanMcKnight said “How is this prediction right? The article linked doesn’t talk about AI at all. ” on 2016-04-29