We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.

Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2062-12-31.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2063-01-01.

Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.

“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.

Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.

In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.

Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2063-04-26.

By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2064-01-01.

There will be no war in 50 years. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2064-08-13.

By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.

By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.

Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2065-01-02.

Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2065-04-09.

The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order] ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2066-01-01.

Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 44% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2066-01-01.

2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.

Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2066-01-01.

Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.

Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.

Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.

Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-05; known on 2066-07-05.

The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2066-07-08.

It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation ( 99% confidence; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-07-08.

It will be generally agreed that Rush Limbaugh's 2016 contract was for less money than his 2008 contract. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-03; known on 2066-08-16.

Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-10; known on 2066-10-10.

What is today known as the 2016 Oct Surkov leaks will be generally agreed to have been the result of a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-12-01; known on 2066-12-02.

[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2067-09-21.

Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.

Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.

[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.

[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.

Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.

Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2070-01-01.

RSA with < v = 1024 bit key sizes to decipherable by government agencies with a couple of weeks or less effort by 2070. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-18; known on 2070-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*' ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.

“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.

Zcash hacked / value goes to 0 before marketcap hits 1T$USD ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-28; known on 2070-01-01.

The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.