If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.

The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

“We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)” ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

Certain friend will kill themselves this century ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01; known on 2101-01-01.

[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.

Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2101-01-01.

At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.

“We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time” ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-26; known on 2101-01-02.

Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-02.

“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

Gavin Christopher Newsom becomes POTUS (or equivalent title to whatever union california is part of) ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-28; known on 2104-03-01.

“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century ( 60% confidence )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2110-01-01.

Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future! ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2111-04-20.

I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.

“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government” —krozier93; BBC ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.

“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories” —Alister Brown, BBC ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

“We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. —Doron Zeilberger ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2112-01-06.

Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.

Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.

Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.

Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-23; known on 2113-04-23.

Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2113-04-26.

As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival) ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by DiscyD3rp on 2013-07-01; known on 2113-07-01.

There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-12-16; known on 2113-12-16.

There will be no religion in 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2114-08-13.

Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2114-10-21.

Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2114-10-28.

Neo-Luddist's will be the Al-Qaeda of the 2110's. ( 50% confidence )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2115-01-01.

By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-27; known on 2116-01-01.

Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.

I will step on Mars before I die ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2117-01-01.