A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.

Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.

White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.

The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.

No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.

By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.

Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.

Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. —Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF). ( 100% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2050-12-25.

“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.

The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.

They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.

P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.

By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.

> 100 fatalities per 1e12 revenue passenger kilometres on commercial airliners over 2040-2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2021-01-02; known on 2051-01-01.

Will China officially launch a coordinated campaign to discourage meat-eating (either through coercion or incentives) by 2050? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2051-01-01.

China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] +2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, marine cloud brightening is used ( 30% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used ( 20% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

[Climate change reaches] <2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture) ( 25% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2051-01-01.

'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.

Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.

For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2051-01-01.

A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.

Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2051-01-01.

US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.

Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.

US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.

At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.

Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.

More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.

By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.

Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.

R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.

Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.

Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.

In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.

I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.