The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.

By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2079-10-28.

Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-16; known on 2080-01-01.

Busy Beaver of 5 is 47,176,870 and proven by 2080. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-23; known on 2080-01-01.

A true general intelligence AI will be created ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2080-10-16.

US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2083-01-01.

By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.

gwern will get married by 2090 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-20; known on 2090-01-01.

I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.

Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2090-01-01.

Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.

A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.

The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2091-01-01.

'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.

By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) —Charles Stross ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?” —C ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.” ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.

i live to use quell ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2096-01-01.

'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.

Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.

Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Adam D'Angelo become a father? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.

The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once) ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2099-01-01.

Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2099-01-01.

Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.

“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

CPT symmetry violated ( 13% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-05; known on 2099-12-31.