Upcoming Predictions
-
AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
-
A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
-
There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.
-
An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.
-
American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
-
China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.
-
90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
-
US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.
-
The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
-
Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.
-
Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
-
A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.
-
Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.
-
White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.
-
The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.
-
No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
-
By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.
-
Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.
-
Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. —Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF). ( 100% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2050-12-25.
-
By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.