My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31
- Tuxedage estimated 40% on 2013-01-12
- Tuxedage changed their prediction from “My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 50 people with cryonics, or whatever the leading life-extension technology is of that time, (whichever of the two” on 2013-01-12
- Tuxedage said “Cryonics can be replaced with “Whatever the leading edge indefinite-life-extension technology is at this time, whether it’s uploading or methuselah-foundation aging therapy”.” on 2013-01-12
- Tuxedage changed their prediction from “My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 50 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028” on 2013-01-13
- Tuxedage said “For ease of calculation, I’ll do the estimates for you. Alcor’s Full body cryonics costs 2k per year. In order to obtain that amount for 100 people in passive income, I have to earn about 230k in passive income.” on 2013-01-13
- Tuxedage said “ If we assume that I can get 6% interest on mutual funds, I would have to have 3.8 million invested in the mutual fund market, for that to occur.” on 2013-01-13
- Tuxedage said “Average inflation rate has been 2% per year, whilst average mutual fund appreciation rate has been average 9% per year, historically. Those factor in the last calculation.” on 2013-01-13
- Tuxedage said “I forgot to add: 0.5% for management costs, another 0.5% “In case shit happens”.” on 2013-01-13
- dhoe estimated 5% and said “As I don’t know you, I’m just applying a low base rate estimate for anybody making that kind of money” on 2013-01-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2013-01-15
- lavalamp estimated 8% on 2013-01-21
- ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2013-01-24
- najdorf estimated 1% and said “What dhoe said. Good luck though!” on 2013-02-06
- Malgidus estimated 2% on 2013-03-27
- gwern estimated 4% on 2014-10-06
- PseudonymousUser said ““whichever is greater” between a net worth and an income?” on 2014-10-20
- PseudonymousUser said “oh, misread; ignore” on 2014-10-20
- kuudes said “Would you like to publish us some reasons to decide predictions to any direction, like sort of general business plan, roadmap and attained goals?” on 2014-10-25
- sweeneyrod estimated 1% on 2014-12-14
- paulharris estimated 4% on 2015-02-19
- Mati said “The chemical preservation of a brain cost 900$ at Oregon Cryonics (http://tinyurl.com/oy5hxkj)). Is that “leading edge” however? Probably not. Cryonics is the leading edge. But the prediction isn’t that unlikely.” on 2015-02-19
- Mati said “*2500$ actually (900$ the minimum for transportation)” on 2015-02-19
- jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Just based on statistics and people’s overconfidence” on 2015-04-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Updating and thinking about it more. ” on 2015-04-28
- danohu estimated 2% on 2015-08-08
- ioannes estimated 2% on 2016-01-20
- Temeraire estimated 2% on 2016-02-12
- themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
- pranomostro estimated 7% on 2018-12-08
- Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-12